Ahead of the crucial COP30 summit in Brazil, a new United Nations report reveals a concerning reality: current national climate plans are insufficient to prevent global warming from exceeding the critical 1.5°C threshold. This limit, agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, is widely recognized as essential to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change.
Insufficient National Pledges
The report finds that only 64 countries, representing roughly 30% of global emissions, have submitted updated plans to cut carbon emissions—far short of the requirement for all signatory nations to do so every five years. While the report does include statements from China and the European Union regarding their future plans, the collective efforts still fall short of what is needed.
Current national pledges, even when combined, project a mere 10% reduction in global carbon dioxide emissions by 2035. This is significantly less than the 57% reduction the UN has determined is necessary to keep global warming below 1.5°C.
The Significance of the 1.5°C Limit
The 1.5°C limit isn’t an arbitrary number; it represents a crucial point beyond which the world faces dramatically increased risks. Scientists have detailed the extensive benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C compared to a 2°C rise. Crossing the 1.5°C threshold increases the likelihood of more frequent and intense heatwaves and storms, irreversible damage to coral reefs, and serious threats to human health and livelihoods. Alarmingly, the world already surpassed this limit in 2024 for the first time, and UN leaders increasingly believe that permanent breach is inevitable by the early 2030s at the current rate.
A Window of Opportunity at COP30
Despite the sobering assessment, the report isn’t entirely without hope. Several significant steps are still possible to improve the outlook.
- More Countries Joining the Effort: Many countries are expected to submit plans during COP30 in Belém, Brazil.
- Large Emitters Stepping Up: Large carbon-producing nations like India and Indonesia have yet to release their plans, and their announcements during COP30 could substantially alter the projections for 2035.
- Potential for Accelerated Action: Experts suggest that some countries, including China, may exceed their stated targets, demonstrating a faster pace of emissions reductions.
“It’s actually completely reasonable to look at China,” said former US Special Envoy for climate change Todd Stern. “They’ll put down a certain number, which is not great, and then they will overachieve it, and China does that a lot.”
A Transition Towards Net-Zero
The UN remains optimistic that global emissions will peak and begin to decline in the coming years—a turning point not seen since the Industrial Revolution. The plans already in place, including the recently submitted US pledge under President Biden, demonstrate clear progress toward achieving net-zero emissions by the middle of the century. Net zero refers to balancing the greenhouse gases released by human activities with those actively removed from the atmosphere.
While the possibility of keeping global warming below 1.5°C is dwindling, the ongoing efforts and potential for accelerated action highlight the importance of COP30 and underscore the urgent need for stronger, more ambitious climate policies worldwide. The report acknowledges the challenges, but emphasizes that continued progress, even if falling short of the original goal, remains essential for mitigating the worst impacts of climate change
